ელექტროენერგიის წარმოების, განაწილების და მოხმარების ანალიზისა და პროგნოზირების ეკონომიკურ-მათემატიკური მოდელები

The electricity market is directly and indirectly affects the country's economic status as micro and macro levels. This market has changed substantially in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR in Georgia. This paper includes an analysis of the state of the electricity market, trends and forecasts, based on modern econometric and quantitative analysis methods and models. In economic-mathematical models discussed in the work, economic variables are directly or indirectly connected with the electric power market. These include electricity price, gross domestic product, exchange rate, electricity import-export, electricity demand, electricity supply and other micro and macro indicators. Discussing these indicators allows us to study the current situation, review periods of electricity generation in Georgia, and present perspectives from the current state to the nearest future, or to determine how much of the development of the electricity market is maintained in the sustainable economy.
The work consists of three chapters. In the first stage the Georgian Electricity Market subjects and structure, market functioning rules, specifics of the current energy balance. There is also an econometric survey of the energy market price that was implemented using the Box-Jenkins method. In the second chapter, several economic-mathematical models are considered for different aspects of the electricity market, including demand and supply, analyzing and forecasting. In the last chapter of the work, the situation in Georgia is assessed by the optimal behavior model of consumers, where households are choosing between electricity and natural gas consumption.