სახელმწიფო ვალის დინამიკის მოდელები

The impact of Public Debt on economic growth has always been of great interest. After the financial crisis of 2008, the volume of debt has grown significantly in developed and developing countries, debt problems have become significant and created different theories and models that characterize the level of debt, its impact on economic growth, tax rate, initial balance of the budget, the status of future generations etc.Varios models of debt dynamic and debt policy in Georgia are considered in the presented paper.
The first part of paper consider the main judgment and models about public debt problems. In this chapter are analyzed positive and negative rights of debt dynamic models. The focus is on the risks of debt growth and positive effects, the relationship between debt and budget deficit, Ricardo’s equivalence and the dynamics of debt and savings, debt stabilization problems and ,,Snowball effect”.
Models of public debt dynamics are discussed in the second part of the paper. We particularly record two of them: Ramsi Kusmann (RCK) model, that describes the debt impact on the equilibrium edition and shows how will influence the growth of debt on economic growth in the long term and the World Bank model of fiscal sustainability.
Georgia’s debt structure is analyzed in the third part. We evaluated an econometric model, where dependant variable is debt/GDP. In addition we evaluated VAR model and impulse function, where four endogenous variables (interest rate, inflation, tax/gdp and gdp real growth) are presented.