ვალუტის გაცვლითი კურსის ეკონომეტრიკული ანალიზი

The exchange rate is one of the most important instruments that can affect the country's economic
situation, financial stability and social welfare. Therefore, it is great importante its analysis and
forecasting. The paper discusses different approaches to exchange rate modeling. The aim of the
study is to select a valid model from the above-mentioned approaches to the example of Georgia for
the analysis and forecasting of the Georgian GEL exchange rate.
The paper consists of an introduction, 3 chapters and a conclusion. The first chapter provides an
overview of the exchange rate, in particular the history of its development and the main difference
between the different types of exchange rates. In addition, this chapter describes exchange rate
factors that are grouped by period (short-term, medium-term, long-term). The second chapter
presents the different approaches to exchange rate modeling, which involves discussing different
models for exchange rate analysis and forecasting, such as traditional approaches and random
wandering models . The third chapter presents some empirical studies of the models discussed in
the theoretical part on the example of Georgia in order to test their validity. In particular, two
types of VAR models: The first of these aims to determine the exchange rate of the three
currencies, and the second model is built to assess the impact of exchange rate factors. The paper
also provides empirical analysis of the random walk model and the econometric model of the PPP
theory from the traditional approach.