უმნიშვნელოვანესი არადაკვირვებადი მაკროეკონომიკური მაჩვენებლების შეფასების მეთოდები

In this research, we discuss methods for estimating the most important unobservable
macroeconomic indicators such as potential GDP, the non-accelerating inflation rate of
unemployment (NAIRU), Okun coefficient, and the desired volume of capital. The research was
conducted on the example of the Georgian economy and in the process of evaluation both pure
statistical, structural and econometric methods were used.
The first four chapters of the paper are theoretical, where the methods of estimating these
indicators are discussed in detail. In particular, the first chapter discusses four methods for
estimating Potential Gross Domestic Product, including the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, the
Christiano-Fitzgerald (BP) filter, the Kalman filter, and the Cobb-Douglas Production Function.
The second chapter presents the methodology for estimating the level of the non-accelerating
inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) based on the Phillips Curve and Keynesian model of
the labor market. The third chapter is devoted to three versions of Okun coefficient estimation:
Gap, Difference, and Quasi-dynamic versions. The fourth chapter discusses two main methods of
estimating the optimal or desired volume of capital, such as The Perpetual Inventory Method and
The Accelerator Model of Investment. And the fifth part is an empirical assessment of the
theoretical methods and models discussed for the Georgian economy based on the quarterly data
for 1998-2019. The last part of the paper concludes with the results obtained.