Dangerous Weather Phenomena in Tbilisi and Associated Climate Risks

The probabilities of the occurrence of individual hazardous weather phenomena and their complexes in the city of Tbilisi were studied: hot days, strong winds, heavy winds, fog, hail, blizzard. The most common of the phenomena under consideration are hot days. Even in spring and autumn their probability is quite high, and in summer it reaches 0.83. During the cold season, there is a high probability of fog. Strong winds occur at all times of the year. Their probability is not very high, but is characterized by a significant coefficient of aggressiveness. Hail is especially aggressive and occurs in the warm season. The likelihood of a snowstorm developing is negligible. Possible social and economic risks associated with these phenomena have been identified. Both social and economic risks are greatest from fog and strong winds. In winter, the economic risk
from fog per incident can be more than 3.6 million US dollars, in the fall - more than 2.3 million US dollars. The social risk from strong winds is greatest in spring, although the risk is also significant in other seasons. The economic risk from strong winds in spring exceeds $2.6 million, and in winter exceeds $2 million. These phenomena occur several times throughout the year, so the economic risk can range from several to tens of millions of US dollars per year.